1. Incumbents almost always win. And Trump has a long and strong record of accomplishments to point to, including record low unemployment and a record strong economy up to the Covid 19 shutdowns. Democrats would like to delay the recovery until after the November elections, but it has already started to strongly rebound.
2. The most accurate election predictor, which has been right 22 out of the last 24 Presidential elections and which in 2016 gave candidateTrump an 87% chance of winning, gives him a 91% chance of winning in 2020. Its algorithms look at how people perform in Presidential primaries. This year, even though President Trump ran unopposed and people did not need to turn out, his numbers were crushingly high.
3. President Trump's approval rating within his base is over 90%. and the base is motivated. Unlike almost any other politician in memory President Trump has followed through on almost every thing he promised when he campaigned, and his supporters recognize that.
4. In 2016 Trump won 200 counties in critical swing states that had voted Democrat by a 20% margin in the previous 20 years. He won those by a margin of 20%. They counties were once part of the traditional Democrat base, comprised of mostly white working class voters. These voters felt both that the Democrat Party had abandoned them and that Trump best represented their daily concerns.
This is the group that won Trump the election in 2016. They made up for votes that Trump did not get within the Evangelical community and within certain segments of the ruling class in the Republican Party (never Trumpers). Since 2016 the Democrat Party has swung so much farther to the Left and away from the concerns of that group that Trump will not only maintain, but greatly expand his support from them.
5. As noted above, in 2016, because they did not believe he would follow through on his promises and because of certain other obvious personal weaknesses, many Evangelical voters either sat out the election or voted third party. For the most part that will not happen again. President Trump has been the best Pro-Life President ever. He is arguably the most Pro-Israel President ever. There are a dozen other metrics important to Christians that President Trump has also proven to be very strong on.
6. President Trump's approval rating among Blacks has been steadily growing. Traditionally, Republican Presidential candidates garner about 10% of the Black vote. There were two polls done earlier this year which showed President Trump's approval with Blacks at 31% and then 35%. A poll that came out 2 weeks ago had it at 41%. There are several reasons for this.
(A) Because of Trump's policies Black owned business have increased 400% since Trump was elected.
(B) President Trump has enacted real prison reform, a major concern in the Black community.
(C) Black colleges have received strong funding from Trump's administration.
(D) Black voices such as Candice Owens with her Blexit movement (Black exit from the Democrat Party) and others have articulated that Republican positions and policies better represent traditional Conservative views held in the Black community.
(E) Did I mention Kayne West?
Approval ratings do not necessarily translate directly to votes. But if Republicans ever get 15% of the Black vote then it is game over for the Democrat Party.
7. Hispanic approval for President Trump has been polling in the mid 40's, way up from the 30% he received in 2016.
8. Following the lead of Brendan Stracha's #WalkAway movement (a gay hair dresser from New York city) there have been large numbers of people from traditional Democrat voting groups who have realized that the main stream media has been utterly biased and unfair in their coverage of President Trump. Ten's of thousands or more have been "red pilled" and will now be voting in 2020 for Trump.
9. Joe Biden is a uniquely weak candidate. He has never created any excitement toward himself on the national stage. This year he surged ahead after winning South Carolina only because party insiders decided he was their guy and pressured most of the other candidates to drop out so Sanders would not win. Polls show that in 2020, 75% of Democrats will not be voting "for" Joe Biden. Instead they will be voting "against" Donald Trump. There is also a good bet that some of the Sanders people will not show up to vote, even though Biden has in public adopted most of Sander's platform. This is very bad for Biden because historically more people show up to vote "for" someone than "against" someone.
Joe Biden is, to be kind, way, way past his prime, and everyone knows it. No one can really invision him as a strong and intelligent leader with vision, ready to take on the numerous difficult challenges of the Presidency. That non confidence will cost him votes.
He has numerous road blocks from his past which the press has largely ignored but which will be brought out front and center by President Trump and his campaign. These including sexual assault, compulsive touching, grouping and hair sniffing. and being a little too friendly around little girls. There are also a few books out detailing how Biden's family have become rich by taking advantage of government related contracts connected to areas that Vice President Biden was in charge of.
It will be hard for Biden to get around the fact that he was very cozy with the country that released upon us the Covid 19 virus. And his past policies are very unpopular with the Progressive Left who are now taking over his party and who want to burn down and shout down anything resembling common sense.
Biden just released his platform which, as I said, adopts about everything that Bernie Sanders was running on. The Democrat Party's gambit is (if they are really going to let Biden get the nomination) most Democrats will believe that Joe is really a moderate and is only playing the political game to keep the Progressive Left happy. The problem is, so many of those positions are so wacky that it is just too easy for President Trump to read aloud (as I saw him do last night) one goofy thing after another, look at the camera and say; "Can you believe it?"
Both the past and the present are out to get Joe Biden. That leaves him very little future.
10 And on top of all of the above, the events of this year have frightened a lot of people. Those events include riots that are still going on, tearing down of statues, defunding police and the lack for support for law and order. Many of the people frightened are life long Democrats who never before would have thought of voting Republican. Fear is one of the greatest motivators in life and this year fear will bring out two groups of people to vote the Republican ticket. Those that have never voted before and Democrats who dislike Trump but fear what the Marxist inspired chaos has created.
Gun sales have gone through the roof in the last 3 months, many of the sales to first time gun owners, a lot of those Democrats who before were anti-gun until they felt their own lives were or would be threatened.
So ignore the polls and all the sound and fury you are hearing and will hear in the next few months. Ignore the political commentators. Turn off the TV or at least the political news and the daily - Trump is bad news - which has been a staple of the main stream Democrat propaganda media since the day he got elected. And even though YOU STILL NEED TO VOTE and you need to pray against massive fraud via mail in ballots, you should relax. Trump will not only get voted in again this November, it won't even be close.
