Beyond The Third Sandbar
Beyond the third sandbar
heading surely my way
barely visible from where I stand
ankle, knee, waist deep
all at the same moment
in the fresh waters drawn from the sky
and blasted out from the depths
is an irresistible force
not caused by the fluttering wings
of a butterfly in Brazil
or a trumpeter's blast in New Orleans
And yet here I am, waiting, watching
straining to maintain my place
feet and toes dug into the shifting bottom
shoulders and face leaning out toward the horizon
hard fists punching the incoming hordes
Finally it begins to rise
bigger than all it's companions
not yet white with sun and air
but it is a monster
and I will be it's master
and will ride it to it's doom
Saturday, August 27, 2016
Saturday, August 20, 2016
Can A Third Party Or Write-In Candidate Win?
Is it possible in today's day and age for a third party or write-in candidate to win the 2016 Presidential election? Well, we had a tornado pass close by this afternoon and I thought I might have seen a pig flying so the answer is sure, it is technically possible but practically impossible.
This is what you need to know in case you are going to get behind a candidate who is not the Republican or the Democrat offering and have actual hopes that your protest vote has any chance of producing a real outcome in the Presidential election.
The first thing to mention is that we little people of the United States when voting for President are not actually voting for the man or woman listed on the ballot. The Founding Fathers in their wisdom did not want the President to be just the person who could garner the most overall votes. They wanted as well for each state to have a certain amount of influence in the process.
Thus they created something called The Electoral College which is a group of people from each state who travel to Washington sometime after the election and who then place their vote for President. Each state has a number of electors which equals their number of congressmen and senators.
Electors are not selected by our votes. Each party submits to their state a list of people that want to represent that state in the Electoror College. Electors cannot be people who are currently serving as elected representatives at the state or federal level. Electors are free to vote their conscience but since they are always people very active in their party the results are usually as expected.
All but 2 or 3 states award all of their elector spots to the party which has received the largest vote total for their candidate for President.
So here are the hurdles for the success of a third party candidate. Almost all states have a deadline for a third party to file the proper papers to get on the state's ballot and to submit a list of electors. Often this also requires properly signed petitions of at least 1 per cent of that state's voting aged citizens. Newly created third parties for this year's election will have a real problem getting on the ballots of enough states to be able to, if they actually can get a majority of votes in those states, to end up with a majority of the overall elector votes.
Interestingly, a write-in candidate does not have to submit either signed petitions or prior to the election their list of electors. How the states will handle the submission of electors for a winning write-in candidate is up in the air but it would not be a stretch to guess that the major parties will hold up any write in successes in the courts for years. Most if not all states do require that a candidate submit their name to the state sometime prior to the election to have a vote for that name to be counted. Thus any protest only votes are never publicly counted or published.
Now practically speaking a Democrat candidate could either be hospitalized or in jail at the election and still register 40 per cent of the vote in most states. Republicans seem to have more qualms about these things but they could run a clown and he or she would still get 35/40 per cent of the Republican vote in most states. That leaves a third party or write-in candidate fighting for the 20 to 25 per cent of the voters in a state who are still willing to go out and vote. That will not be enough to get electors.
Ross Perot ran as a third party candidate some years ago, participated in the debates and gathered about 15 million votes across the country. He won 1 Elector vote, from one of the 2 or 3 states that proportion their Electors.
But, maybe some kind of tornado will rip through this country, pigs will fly and I won't tell anyone that I majored in political science.
This is what you need to know in case you are going to get behind a candidate who is not the Republican or the Democrat offering and have actual hopes that your protest vote has any chance of producing a real outcome in the Presidential election.
The first thing to mention is that we little people of the United States when voting for President are not actually voting for the man or woman listed on the ballot. The Founding Fathers in their wisdom did not want the President to be just the person who could garner the most overall votes. They wanted as well for each state to have a certain amount of influence in the process.
Thus they created something called The Electoral College which is a group of people from each state who travel to Washington sometime after the election and who then place their vote for President. Each state has a number of electors which equals their number of congressmen and senators.
Electors are not selected by our votes. Each party submits to their state a list of people that want to represent that state in the Electoror College. Electors cannot be people who are currently serving as elected representatives at the state or federal level. Electors are free to vote their conscience but since they are always people very active in their party the results are usually as expected.
All but 2 or 3 states award all of their elector spots to the party which has received the largest vote total for their candidate for President.
So here are the hurdles for the success of a third party candidate. Almost all states have a deadline for a third party to file the proper papers to get on the state's ballot and to submit a list of electors. Often this also requires properly signed petitions of at least 1 per cent of that state's voting aged citizens. Newly created third parties for this year's election will have a real problem getting on the ballots of enough states to be able to, if they actually can get a majority of votes in those states, to end up with a majority of the overall elector votes.
Interestingly, a write-in candidate does not have to submit either signed petitions or prior to the election their list of electors. How the states will handle the submission of electors for a winning write-in candidate is up in the air but it would not be a stretch to guess that the major parties will hold up any write in successes in the courts for years. Most if not all states do require that a candidate submit their name to the state sometime prior to the election to have a vote for that name to be counted. Thus any protest only votes are never publicly counted or published.
Now practically speaking a Democrat candidate could either be hospitalized or in jail at the election and still register 40 per cent of the vote in most states. Republicans seem to have more qualms about these things but they could run a clown and he or she would still get 35/40 per cent of the Republican vote in most states. That leaves a third party or write-in candidate fighting for the 20 to 25 per cent of the voters in a state who are still willing to go out and vote. That will not be enough to get electors.
Ross Perot ran as a third party candidate some years ago, participated in the debates and gathered about 15 million votes across the country. He won 1 Elector vote, from one of the 2 or 3 states that proportion their Electors.
But, maybe some kind of tornado will rip through this country, pigs will fly and I won't tell anyone that I majored in political science.
Wednesday, August 10, 2016
For What Does It Profit A Man
For what does it profit a man to gain the whole world, and forfeit his soul? Mark 8:36
And he (the evil one) led Him (Jesus) up and showed Him all the kingdoms in a moment of time. And the devil said to Him, "I will give you all this domain and it's glory; for it has been handed over to me and I give it to whomever I wish. Therefore, if you worship before me it shall all be yours".
Jesus answered him, "You shall worship the Lord your God, and serve Him only". Luke 4: 5-8
Perhaps the choice between a red pill and a blue pill is a false one and the one who offers them does not really have your best interests, or the world's best interest, at heart. For him, either choice you make will work fine.
Perhaps though, this world is really not as it appears to our senses. There is life intertwined with it that we do not see, rarely sense and misunderstand when we interact with it. The pill presented to see clearly in this world is offered by someone who actually wants to further distort what is reality.
Perhaps there is a third choice, not offered by a mysterious man and certainly not a pill. It is a choice for life and not death, for freedom and not slavery, for hope and not despair, for truth and not deception, for humility and not pride, for love and not hate, for forgiveness and not bitterness, for purity and not lust, for obedience and not rebellion, for trust and not doubt, for faith and not deception.
For me this current election cycle involves a choice for principle over power.
One the one hand I am presented with the beliefs of the Democrat party and their candidate which opposes almost everything I believe is God's revealed will, from protecting the life of the unborn to preserving the sanctity of the family. Freedom of speech and freedom of religion are under attack and this will continue unabated without change. Then there are my own perceptions of the needs for conservative fiscal policy, reducing the debt, limited government and faithfulness to the wisdom the founding fathers inserted into the constitution. In my opinion most of their leaders are amoral and some are actually evil. Lying is a tactic I have seen over and over.
One the other hand I am presented with a fractured Grand Old Party and their populist candidate. Although my beliefs line up much better with the GOP I am also all too aware that politics is a power game and most good people after tasting power get corrupted by it and lust after it. Knowing that there is always another election ahead, afraid of vicious attacks from the other party, the press and Hollywood if conservative fiscal or social policies are legislated they have time after time lied to me as well, promising one thing and delivering another.
With the Supreme Court you know that a Democrat will always select a liberal social and judicial ideologue who desires to legislate their beliefs from the bench. It's just a matter of how radical a person can slip through the vetting and nomination process. With a Republican president the odds should be much better for getting a judicial conservative who looks first to the Constitution. Candidate Trump at this point in time has a judicial selection committee headed by legitimate conservatives.
But here are my problems with the guy selected by a record number of voters in the Republican primary process.
It's not just that he and his family have been life long liberal Democrats. It's not just that he couldn't begin to articulate a pro life position, showing that he has never even thought it through. It's not just that he has been a known womanizer who has married and then divorced a couple of trophy wives (apparently not being faithful to any of them) and still brags about how important family is to him. It's not just that he has built and owned casinos with strip clubs and I never thought anyone who owed a strip club would ever be considered for President. And it's not just the numerous financial failures that have gone with his successes or his unwillingness to be transparent about his finances.
For me it is also about his arrogance and his personal attacks and attempts to destroy anyone who opposes him (think of him doubling down on his bazzar remarks about Ted Cruz's wife and father after not getting Cruz's endorsement). I know that a lot of things he says get taken out of context and are then used by the other side who has an army of social media and press experts who blast him and make fun of him 24/7. But honestly, Trump makes it so easy for them.
And I believe that Trump like Clinton is a habitual and pathological liar. I remember during the primaries when Rubio started making fun of the size of Trump's hands and then the next day on TV I see that he holds out his hands and says, "Look at these hands. People tell me I have beautiful hands." Of course it was a joke and of course he made it up, but it came out so easy. I began to wonder, is there a line for him or does he say whatever he needs to?
We live in a world that is about to morph and change dramatically. Major banks are going to fail in Europe and other parts of the world. People groups and their beliefs are on the move. Economies are under huge stress in parts of South America. Socialism is advancing in America and it's leaders, both seen and unseen desire chaos in the streets, racial and economic. Turkey, Russia and Iran all desire to recreate their old empires. China wants to rule the East. America is 20 Trillion dollars in debt, saddled with social health and welfare programs that are growing exponentially with fewer employed workers to pay for them and every year there seems to be a greater percentage of single parent homes.
Politicians are unwilling to address the core problems because the other side always wants to get back in power and will paint the bleakest picture of anyone who suggests social or fiscal responsibility.
I have heard it suggested by a few people I have admired for a long time that Trump may be God's instrument to lead the U.S. through those unsettling times. There are many well respected religious leaders who believe the long list of promises that Trump makes (conservative Supreme Court judges, secure borders, enforcing current laws and common sense in our immigration policies, more favorable trade deals, bringing large amounts of off shore money back, realism concerning Islamic Jihad, improved relations with Israel, better care for our Vets, the repeal of Obama Care). They know that none of that will happen under a Clinton administration and fear that American may not recover from even 4 more years of the progressive playbook.
I know that is very compelling. I am resigned that all men and women are flawed and that we are voting for a President and not a pastor. But I also understand that the problems as well as the solutions are spiritual in nature. And if that is so, if I am right on that, then it suggests to me why I have the gut anxiety every time I see and hear Trump.
I feel like someone has taken me up to the top of a mountain, shown me all the kingdoms in an instant of time, and said, here, this is the solution. And I wonder - Am I choosing life, or freedom, or hope, or truth? Am I choosing humility, or love, or forgiveness, or purity? Am I choosing obedience, or trust, or faith? Is this a man God can use? Or am I choosing a positive thinker who asks us to trust him because he can do the job and then says something so outlandish I want scream at the TV.
I do not want to choose either the red pill or the blue one. I have been praying this last month for a third option. I will keep praying and vote for whomever I feel the Lord desires me to. Perhaps we as a rebellious people will get whom we deserve. Perhaps the Lord will have mercy on us and our country.
May His peace be with us.
And he (the evil one) led Him (Jesus) up and showed Him all the kingdoms in a moment of time. And the devil said to Him, "I will give you all this domain and it's glory; for it has been handed over to me and I give it to whomever I wish. Therefore, if you worship before me it shall all be yours".
Jesus answered him, "You shall worship the Lord your God, and serve Him only". Luke 4: 5-8
Perhaps the choice between a red pill and a blue pill is a false one and the one who offers them does not really have your best interests, or the world's best interest, at heart. For him, either choice you make will work fine.
Perhaps though, this world is really not as it appears to our senses. There is life intertwined with it that we do not see, rarely sense and misunderstand when we interact with it. The pill presented to see clearly in this world is offered by someone who actually wants to further distort what is reality.
Perhaps there is a third choice, not offered by a mysterious man and certainly not a pill. It is a choice for life and not death, for freedom and not slavery, for hope and not despair, for truth and not deception, for humility and not pride, for love and not hate, for forgiveness and not bitterness, for purity and not lust, for obedience and not rebellion, for trust and not doubt, for faith and not deception.
For me this current election cycle involves a choice for principle over power.
One the one hand I am presented with the beliefs of the Democrat party and their candidate which opposes almost everything I believe is God's revealed will, from protecting the life of the unborn to preserving the sanctity of the family. Freedom of speech and freedom of religion are under attack and this will continue unabated without change. Then there are my own perceptions of the needs for conservative fiscal policy, reducing the debt, limited government and faithfulness to the wisdom the founding fathers inserted into the constitution. In my opinion most of their leaders are amoral and some are actually evil. Lying is a tactic I have seen over and over.
One the other hand I am presented with a fractured Grand Old Party and their populist candidate. Although my beliefs line up much better with the GOP I am also all too aware that politics is a power game and most good people after tasting power get corrupted by it and lust after it. Knowing that there is always another election ahead, afraid of vicious attacks from the other party, the press and Hollywood if conservative fiscal or social policies are legislated they have time after time lied to me as well, promising one thing and delivering another.
With the Supreme Court you know that a Democrat will always select a liberal social and judicial ideologue who desires to legislate their beliefs from the bench. It's just a matter of how radical a person can slip through the vetting and nomination process. With a Republican president the odds should be much better for getting a judicial conservative who looks first to the Constitution. Candidate Trump at this point in time has a judicial selection committee headed by legitimate conservatives.
But here are my problems with the guy selected by a record number of voters in the Republican primary process.
It's not just that he and his family have been life long liberal Democrats. It's not just that he couldn't begin to articulate a pro life position, showing that he has never even thought it through. It's not just that he has been a known womanizer who has married and then divorced a couple of trophy wives (apparently not being faithful to any of them) and still brags about how important family is to him. It's not just that he has built and owned casinos with strip clubs and I never thought anyone who owed a strip club would ever be considered for President. And it's not just the numerous financial failures that have gone with his successes or his unwillingness to be transparent about his finances.
For me it is also about his arrogance and his personal attacks and attempts to destroy anyone who opposes him (think of him doubling down on his bazzar remarks about Ted Cruz's wife and father after not getting Cruz's endorsement). I know that a lot of things he says get taken out of context and are then used by the other side who has an army of social media and press experts who blast him and make fun of him 24/7. But honestly, Trump makes it so easy for them.
And I believe that Trump like Clinton is a habitual and pathological liar. I remember during the primaries when Rubio started making fun of the size of Trump's hands and then the next day on TV I see that he holds out his hands and says, "Look at these hands. People tell me I have beautiful hands." Of course it was a joke and of course he made it up, but it came out so easy. I began to wonder, is there a line for him or does he say whatever he needs to?
We live in a world that is about to morph and change dramatically. Major banks are going to fail in Europe and other parts of the world. People groups and their beliefs are on the move. Economies are under huge stress in parts of South America. Socialism is advancing in America and it's leaders, both seen and unseen desire chaos in the streets, racial and economic. Turkey, Russia and Iran all desire to recreate their old empires. China wants to rule the East. America is 20 Trillion dollars in debt, saddled with social health and welfare programs that are growing exponentially with fewer employed workers to pay for them and every year there seems to be a greater percentage of single parent homes.
Politicians are unwilling to address the core problems because the other side always wants to get back in power and will paint the bleakest picture of anyone who suggests social or fiscal responsibility.
I have heard it suggested by a few people I have admired for a long time that Trump may be God's instrument to lead the U.S. through those unsettling times. There are many well respected religious leaders who believe the long list of promises that Trump makes (conservative Supreme Court judges, secure borders, enforcing current laws and common sense in our immigration policies, more favorable trade deals, bringing large amounts of off shore money back, realism concerning Islamic Jihad, improved relations with Israel, better care for our Vets, the repeal of Obama Care). They know that none of that will happen under a Clinton administration and fear that American may not recover from even 4 more years of the progressive playbook.
I know that is very compelling. I am resigned that all men and women are flawed and that we are voting for a President and not a pastor. But I also understand that the problems as well as the solutions are spiritual in nature. And if that is so, if I am right on that, then it suggests to me why I have the gut anxiety every time I see and hear Trump.
I feel like someone has taken me up to the top of a mountain, shown me all the kingdoms in an instant of time, and said, here, this is the solution. And I wonder - Am I choosing life, or freedom, or hope, or truth? Am I choosing humility, or love, or forgiveness, or purity? Am I choosing obedience, or trust, or faith? Is this a man God can use? Or am I choosing a positive thinker who asks us to trust him because he can do the job and then says something so outlandish I want scream at the TV.
I do not want to choose either the red pill or the blue one. I have been praying this last month for a third option. I will keep praying and vote for whomever I feel the Lord desires me to. Perhaps we as a rebellious people will get whom we deserve. Perhaps the Lord will have mercy on us and our country.
May His peace be with us.
Thursday, August 4, 2016
Summer
I've had the privilege of growing up and living in West Michigan, near the sandy shores of a rather large lake, dotted with resort towns like South Haven, Douglas/Saugatuck, Holland, Grand Haven and on up to Pentwater and Ludington. Scattered along the shore are public beaches, piers and lighthouses, cottages single or in clusters.
The "Big Lake" provides scenes of early morning stillness, awesome and ever unique sunsets and so much more in between. This poem combines a cluster of my memories in imagining taking a week or two off and just chilling.
Summer
I find myself dreaming of faded shorts
and lakeside cottages snug together
walking between on old cement walks
edged by tall random weeds and buzzing bees
concrete fading into speckled white sand
I am free because it is morning with nowhere else to go
but the water's shore with it's rippled surface and
scattered gulls and half buried driftwood logs
which has called me to visit before breakfast
and the shower which I just might forget about
Later there will be time to find the little local stand
where one might acquire a steamed dog, warm moist
bun topped with cheese and onions and ketchup for me
or spicy original recipe chili for her
but for now I am quite alone, toes splashing to a lazy rhythm
Back at our rental there are a few books that might get read
a Weber grill that will be fired up once or twice more, family
that is coming and fresh picked corn that needs to be husked
and a large steel water filled tub waiting to greet my sandy feet
which haven't seen my shoes for three whole days
The "Big Lake" provides scenes of early morning stillness, awesome and ever unique sunsets and so much more in between. This poem combines a cluster of my memories in imagining taking a week or two off and just chilling.
Summer
I find myself dreaming of faded shorts
and lakeside cottages snug together
walking between on old cement walks
edged by tall random weeds and buzzing bees
concrete fading into speckled white sand
I am free because it is morning with nowhere else to go
but the water's shore with it's rippled surface and
scattered gulls and half buried driftwood logs
which has called me to visit before breakfast
and the shower which I just might forget about
Later there will be time to find the little local stand
where one might acquire a steamed dog, warm moist
bun topped with cheese and onions and ketchup for me
or spicy original recipe chili for her
but for now I am quite alone, toes splashing to a lazy rhythm
Back at our rental there are a few books that might get read
a Weber grill that will be fired up once or twice more, family
that is coming and fresh picked corn that needs to be husked
and a large steel water filled tub waiting to greet my sandy feet
which haven't seen my shoes for three whole days
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