Chaos Theory

This week I was waiting for a customer while sitting in our white plastic chair which is stationed underneath a tree shaded area next to where we begin the parking lot portion of our driving tests.  That chair has become my summer retreat during this very busy season.  Sometimes I imagine that the road in the distance is actually an ocean, the asphalt leading to it a beach and the old beat up buildings in between forests of gently swaying palms.  I rest, holding an imaginary lemonade, enjoy the cool shaded breeze and think deep thoughts.  That is until a car roars by and a woman opens her window and tosses out an empty energy drink can and fast food wrapper upon my beach.

Things have changed in my little paradise this summer.  The powers that be have started a road project at a main intersection near us and the traffic volume through our parking lot has increased four fold.  None of these are what I would call "Happy Drivers".  Most are in a hurry, upset they had to endure any delay and are using this supposed shortcut aggressively to try and make up time.  It is high noon in Dodge City with every man and woman for themselves and everyone believing that they and only they have the right of way.

I would like to be able to describe the traffic patterns for you but I believe (after close observation and more deep, deep thought) that things are operating in a manner that can best be described at Chaos Theory.

In 1972 Edward Lorenz wrote a paper titled Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly's Wings in Brazil set off a Tornado in Texas?

This paper contained his definition of chaos.  Chaos: When the present determines the future, but the approximate present does not approximately determine the future.

Let me try to set the scene for you.  My ocean is 28th street where traffic is always very heavy.  About 50 yards to my right is Clyde Park Avenue.  Construction has brought traffic down to one lane each way at this intersection and no one is able to turn onto Clyde Park from 28th street.  On the corner of this intersection is a gas station with some other shops, then to my left is Duthler's grocery, then a large parking lot area which will one day become a Goodwill store, then mall parking.  There are several drives where traffic can enter from 28th street.  There is a drive in front of the mall, a drive that runs along the side of the mall and a drive that goes past the back of the mall.  The large parking area which is to the side of the mall and which is in front of us and in back of Duthler's is the wild west of driving.

The parking lot is filled with yellow parking lines that were put in solely for an event called Metro Cruise, a car show that occurs just once a year.  There are double yellow lines and then open spaces that indicate where people are supposed to drive but few seem confined to those prescribed areas.  Traffic heads to Clyde Park along an angle from the back of the mall, from the drive from the middle of the side, from the drive on an angle from just in front of the mall, from a sharp angle from the drive from 28th street in front of the mall and straight on from the side of Duthler's, these vehicles coming either direct from 28th street or from the drives in front of the mall.  All of these seem to converge at the back side of Duthler's where they meet traffic heading the other way from Clyde Park.  This traffic can see vehicles approaching from the back of the mall and from the middle but are blind to the other traffic until the last second, this blindness the same for the other direction as well.

In my rather limited observation time I have seen hundreds of hand gestures and screeching brakes.  People get out of their cars and argue who is responsible for close calls (perhaps 40 mph through a parking lot is reasonable in some minds).  People do not get out of their cars and get chased around the parking lot by the other car.  Unwary pedestrians do these little escape dances.  But I have not yet seen an actual collision.

Perhaps the Brazilian butterfly who designed this mess was some kind of genius.  I have heard of towns in England that do not post speed signs, the theory being that people compensate for the lack of direction and actually go slower.  Honey, this is not England.  The blokes here take the lack of order as a Carte Blanch to go faster via the shortest available route.  And yet, no collisions.  Still, seeing that "the approximate present does not approximately determine the future" there might be fun times ahead.  As long as no one gets hurt.  As long as it's not me.